Yunosuke Ikeda, chief economist at Nomura International foresees a speeding up scenario for the Japanese economy.He reckons that an appreciation of the yen versus the dollar or the euro is unlikely to happen in the short term. Exports should continue to take advantage of an attractive exchange rate.
Furthermore, with a dollar/yen exchange rate currently at 1:115, the profits of Japanese companies are expected to rise 10%, reinforcing Yunosuke Ikeda’s optimism.
In this context, he favours the manufacturing sector, whose momentum is currently favourable and which presents a limited sensibility to the American conjuncture.
Besides, investments continue to be a strong support for growth in the island. The high level of industrial production and the use rate of the machinery reaching a 15 years old peak suggest the possibility of a continuous growth of investment.
Concerning the monetary policy, Yunosuke Ikeda anticipates a rise in short term rates in spite of a nonexistent inflation, following the comments of the Bank of Japan governor.
Finally, Yunosuke Ikeda anticipates a 2,6% increase of the GDP for 2008 combined with a strong profitable growth, in spite of an uncertain political context.
